The NFL MVP award creates a predictable price cycle for sports cards. Understanding it can help you buy smart and sell at the right time.
The MVP Price Cycle
Stage 1: Early season performance — Cards of hot-starting QBs see early price bumps in September-October.
Stage 2: MVP frontrunner emerges — As November arrives, whoever is leading MVP odds sees cards rise steadily.
Stage 3: Award season build-up — December-January, leading into the playoffs, sees the biggest price spike.
Stage 4: Award announced — Prices peak around announcement. This is often the best time to sell.
Stage 5: Post-announcement correction — Prices stabilize or drop slightly as hype fades.
Historical Examples
Patrick Mahomes 2018: Won MVP in February 2019. Anyone who bought his Prizm RC in October 2018 for $40-60 and sold in January 2019 for $300+ caught a massive wave.
Lamar Jackson 2019: Similar pattern. Early-season buyers were richly rewarded.
Josh Allen 2020s: Allen has been an MVP frontrunner multiple times. His cards spike every fall and stabilize in spring.
What to Look For
The best MVP-play cards are:
- Prizm Silver RCs (most liquid)
- Optic Rated Rookie RCs
- Chrome RCs
- Any cards graded PSA 10 (command the highest premiums)
Risk Management
Don't go all-in on one player. Split your investment across 3-4 frontrunners. The correct pick pays off big; the others give you partial returns.
And remember — hold some cards because you love them, not just for profit.